…make it Reuel Gerecht. He’s by far the most knowledgeable American writer out there with a profound understanding of the intelligence, military, cultural, and political context. His best guess:

HH: Now this is Wednesday. Of course it’s now deep into Wednesday night in Iran, huge demonstrations Monday, Tuesday Wednesday, more called for tomorrow. Do you think there is a reasonable hope that the regime can be toppled internally, Mr. Gerecht?

RMG: Oh, immediately? No. I doubt that. But I do think that we’ve gone past the Rubicon here, and that I don’t think Khamenei, the leader of Iran, is going to ever be able to turn back the clock. You have very powerful members of the ruling elite who are now aligning against him who want to see the election results annulled. This by no means means we’re going to have some form of liberal government established in Iran. The reverse could happen. You could see a military coup by the Revolutionary Guard corps, but I think it does mean fundamentally that the Iranian government’s going to be unstable, that its legitimacy has collapsed, and that you do now have for the first time I think a distinct possibility of some evolution that Iranian people would be proud of. But it may be very difficult and very tough going before we see that.

On our public stance—and the CIA’s bias towards passivity:

HH: Let’s start, you know, you’re a veteran of the American intelligence agencies. If you were back there right now and you were advising them what to do about the turmoil in Iran if we wanted regime change, what’s your advice to them?

RMG: Well, I mean, I think the first thing you have to understand is the agency is not terribly fond of regime change. I mean, I think to put it basically is you should treat the Iranians no differently than you would treat, say, individuals in Eastern Europe during the Soviet period. That is, you know, do what you can to support those individuals who want to bring democracy. So I think the approach that the Obama administration has taken is not terribly helpful. It is a bit odd when you read the pronouncements of the French president or even the Belgian foreign minister, and they sound more stouthearted than those of any U.S. official.

Confucius, Œc. Vol.

Don’t ask impertinent questions like that jackass Adept Lu.