The Czar is prompted to reply to his own post in order to respond to various emails, comments, and so on at once.

1. “Do you really believe war with Iran is inevitable?” By no means. The Czar would not be amazed if nothing happened. There is every indicator that the October 1 talks are indeed the primary goal, and that everyone hopes they will work. However, it is clear that a backup plan is very much in place.

However, the nature of an Iran war is something to think about. The discussions seem to revolve around two option: either we stop Iran, or we live with the prospect of a nuclear Iran. The latter is a false option: the question that Iran has forced is do we take out Iran today or tomorrow? This summer’s events show that Iran is not capable of transforming herself from within yet, and as a test revealed that she is years away from a smooth democratic transformation; conversely, the Iranians will have nukes long before that time. And Iran, historically, has used every weapon she obtained (Ahmadî-Nezhâd’s recent profession of abhorrence is not credible). Unless you are willing to live Iran shooting nuclear weapons all over the place, you need to take action. There will be no such thing as a peaceful, nuclear Iran. Math, math, math.

Whether or not this war requires the US to put boots on the ground is another issue. Unfortunately, the job will likely fall to us, and we will have another insurgency to deal with—even though, again, a democratic, peaceful Iran benefits Europe far more than the US, we will likely have to clean up the mess for the rest of the planet. This may have been in the works for some time: take a look at Iraq, and take a look at Afghanistan, and then check out which country is smack in the middle between them. If war comes to Iran, she will be boxed in—something that was not done to Iraq in 1991 or Afghanistan in 1998 to our current peril.

War in Iran is not certain by any means, and we hope completely avoidable. But the overwhelming series of bizarre events makes sense only in light that a massive failsafe operation is being assembled.

2. “Do you really believe the Obama administration is this brilliant?” No one said anything about President Obama, who has a pretty clear track record of running and falling down on foreign policy. Folks, it’s Israel calling the shots here (and she has the most at stake!). Russia is involved in a distant second. The only role the US has is to leak intelligence to the media, host the parties, and pressure Saudi Arabia. Those are not leadership roles, but third fiddle roles. It is a bit above Useful Idiot. The Czar is merely pleased that instead of standing around nervously kicking at the dirt, like the Carter administration did with Iran, we seem to be involved in something that could be world changing. The Czar accused one critic of the fallacy of foreign policy egocentrism for automatically assuming that the US is doing all of this because, if true, the set up is so brilliant. Brilliance is not the current administration’s defining adjective, especially when so many other leaders qualify. Netanyahu is a skilled leader and expert statesman, and perfectly capable of masterminding such a complex series of moves.

Yikes: the world we live in when the best solutions are being orchestrated by Israel and Medvedev of Russia. That tells you a lot, when Netanyahu looks at Obama and looks at Medvedev and thinks “Okay, let’s go with the Russkies.”

Perhaps it is for the best. America has a poor track record in handling anything stamped Caution: Iran, and Israel is facing a peril more serious than anything thrown at her in the 1960s.

Update: Other folks are thinking similarly, that Iran is being backed into a corner.

The Czar of Muscovy

Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.