The Czar’s Prediction Scorecard
Psychics make a lot of predictions, but if a person were to go back and honestly compare how often they were right versus how often they were wrong, psychics would pretty much be universally dismissed as morons.
However, a lot of people make predictions on all sorts of things with no special claims beyond the use of common sense. The Czar, for example, eats psychics for lunch (not literally; they are not terribly filling), but he too makes many predictions. Interestingly, the same test can be used to gauge accuracy. How good is the Czar?
Below is a list of many predictions the Czar has made in the last couple years. How is he doing?
| The Czar predicted that creationists will demand to see transitional fossils before and after the very-transitional fossil of a proto-seal was discovered. | Not sure. Nothing obvious came up, but the Czar would not be surprised to find it years later. Call this one Undetermined. |
| The Czar predicted that The Horrible Swine Flu Pandemicwould kill a tiny fraction of the people killed by ordinary flu every single day, and that it would slowly fade from media consciousness. | True. People even acknowledge that the frenzy was hyped up by the Rahm-machine desperate for a quick Obama victory against a public threat. |
| The Czar predicted that Obama would not close the Guantanamo holding facility despite promises to the contrary. | True. |
| The Czar predicted that climate change proponents would claim astronomical data as proof of global warming, when the evidence suggested the opposite. | Undetermined. The Czar leans toward being wrong on this one, as if they have not picked this flag up by now, they probably never will. |
| The Czar predicted that Israel was gearing up for a military assault on Iran, and that the attack made sense from a multi-national perspective. | Although the assault has not happened yet, it appears to be very much a likelihood in the near future. |
| The Czar predicted that the media would drop its obsession with the death of Michael Jackson, and instead turn to self-absorbed eulogies on Walter Cronkite. | Yep. This one happened. Although the Czar did feel the narcissism would continue for weeks, not just a few days. |
| The Czar predicted that Democrats would begin to distance themselves from Obama, and that Obama would be a one-term president. | Fifty-fifty. The Czar was dead right that Democrats would need to smile and wave at Obama from across the room, but avoid any eye contact past that. As for the President being a one-termer? We will see in 2012, but it is still our prediction. |
| The Czar predicted that the death of a census taker at the hands of right-wing conservatives was a lie, and that the likely culprit was a left-winger. | Mixed. The actual prediction was that the death would not be at the hands of conservatives; that part was correct. But it turned out to be suicide, not left-wingers. Anyway, the media lost interest in the story once they could not pin the death to Sarah Palin. Volgi says the Czar was right in this call, though, and he verily accepts the accolade. |
| The Czar predicted that the discovery of ardipithecus ramidus would be rejected by the Discovery Institute. | They sure did. |
| The Czar predicted that global warming believers would ramp up their discoveries in wake of the Hadley CRU email scandal. | They sure did. |
| The Czar predicted that trying terrorists in New York would backfire for the Obama administration. | Hard to say: the suggestion backfired, but there were no actual trials. This seems to have been forgotten. |
| The Czar predicted that news of Kilimanjaro’s melting snowcap would draw a lot of media hype, until word spread that the news story was a fraud. Then, it would eerily vanish. | The Czar was right. |
| The Czar predicted that Brown’s election would trigger a GOP resurgence, and the Democrats would simply let them win elections while they continued blaming each other. | The Czar was correct. This is still going on, as the GOP has gone from total losers to potential landslide victories in 2010. |
| The Czar predicted that at least half of the violence perpetrated against Democrats in the wake of Obamacare will be proven to have been perpetrated by liberals either trying to blame conservatives or because the bill did not go far enough. | Based on how you count the incidents, about 60% were proven to be by bill supporters. Only one incident was definitely by a conservative; the rest were by apolitical goofballs or were hoaxes. |
| The Czar predicted that MacChrystal would voluntarily resign to make the least disruption for Obama, given three other options. | Bullseye. |
| The Czar predicted that changes in ceiling fan regulations had nothing to do with energy and more to do with bowing to Chinese imported bulbs. | Of course this the case! |
| The Czar predicted that Glenn Beck would have a quarter-million or more attendees at his revival. | He had about 350,000 people. We will call this correct, even though some estimates go even higher. Of course, media estimates went way lower, making the Czar far closer to the mark than those guys. |
| The Czar predicted that real or threatened violence against Muslims related to the Ground Zero mosque would be ignored by the mainstream media once it was learned these attacks came from liberal entities. | Correct. |
So, you could potentially score it as 14 right, 1 wrong, and 4 to be determined.
If you are aware of a prediction the Czar made here, right or wrong, that is not listed above, please let him know. He will strive for honesty, and fully expects to admit when he is wrong.
Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.