Stimulative Or Not?
JB from over at Picobusiness writes in to chide ‘Puter. Regarding ‘Puter’s contention that unemployment insurance is not stimulative at all, since it is merely a redistribution of existing wealth:
This would be absolutely true if the only way to raise money would be to raise it from Americans. But a good chunk of the money we’re using to pay for unemployment benefits is coming from other countries. China and Germany and all the other people who want to buy US treasury bonds at ridiculously low prices are providing us the stimulus to get our economy going. They are, in essence, depriving themselves in order to give us money, almost for free.
‘Puter forgot that our government has figured out how to scam non-Americans as well as Americans. So, in theory, whatever portion of the Ponzi scheme proceeds are defrauded from non-Americans benefits Americans directly.
Of course, that is, until such debts have to be repaid. Or inflated away. So while the money is free in the short term, eventually, the debt must be paid, and so we Americans are stuck.
So ‘Puter asked JB to comment on ‘Puter’s “it just comes out of America’s pocket later” position. JB replied thus:
It’s a fair question. I would say that the “right” answer, philosophically is: “Assuming they’re buying 30 year long bonds, in 30 years, assuming even 2% growth, we will be much, much richer than we are now, and paying that dollar back will not be nearly as damaging to the economy as it would be to have to pay it back tomorrow.” Especially if we incorporate inflation into that mix. The Chinese are really taking a huge risk that we don’t inflate our way out of some or all of this debt. After all, we are paying the debts in US dollars, not in gold or canned hams.
Now, obviously if the debt maturity shrinks from 30 years to 10 to 5 to 1, it becomes a heavier burden on the US economy, and it becomes more and more harmful to pay it back. What I’m reading suggests that 10 year securities are the most commonly issued, and so there is some drag on the economy, but I think you’ll agree that raiding your pocket 10 years from now to pay for my unemployed brother’s XBox today is not nearly as damaging to your economic well-being as raiding your pocket today would be.
Now of course, assuming we continue to have the government we have today, in 10 years, they’ll _still_ be borrowing money from other countries, possibly using much or all of that money to pay off the people who hold the current T-Bills. But we can only kick that can down the road so far. Dunno what will happen then.
Good stuff. ‘Puter appreciates the fact that so many of his readers are so knowledgeable, and take the time engage him in respectful debate. ‘Puter likes dialog, especially because none of the other Gormogons will speak with him until he replaces the Czar’s favorite merkin, which ‘Puter inadvertently ate, mistaking it for a woodchuck.
Always right, unless he isn’t, the infallible Ghettoputer F. X. Gormogons claims to be an in-law of the Volgi, although no one really believes this.
’Puter carefully follows economic and financial trends, legal affairs, and serves as the Gormogons’ financial and legal advisor. He successfully defended us against a lawsuit from a liquor distributor worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in unpaid deliveries of bootleg shandies.
The Geep has an IQ so high it is untestable and attempts to measure it have resulted in dangerously unstable results as well as injuries to researchers. Coincidentally, he publishes intelligence tests as a side gig.
His sarcasm is so highly developed it borders on the psychic, and he is often able to insult a person even before meeting them. ’Puter enjoys hunting small game with 000 slugs and punt guns, correcting homilies in real time at Mass, and undermining unions. ’Puter likes to wear a hockey mask and carry an axe into public campgrounds, where he bursts into people’s tents and screams. As you might expect, he has been shot several times but remains completely undeterred.
He assures us that his obsessive fawning over news stories involving women teachers sleeping with young students is not Freudian in any way, although he admits something similar once happened to him. Uniquely, ’Puter is unable to speak, read, or write Russian, but he is able to sing it fluently.
Geep joined the order in the mid-1980s. He arrived at the Castle door with dozens of steamer trunks and an inarticulate hissing creature of astonishingly low intelligence he calls “Sleestak.” Ghettoputer appears to make his wishes known to Sleestak, although no one is sure whether this is the result of complex sign language, expert body posture reading, or simply beating Sleestak with a rubber mallet.
‘Puter suggests the Czar suck it.