Juba! It’s fun to say!
First, as regards “Publius,” don’t worry, Dr. J., the Gormogons are of course monitoring all your online activity. The Mandarin’s files are extensive.
Second, Confucius* is much more sanguine about a secession of Southern Sudan than the Czar. As bad as Sudan could make the process, if it were carried out under international auspices with, say, NATO troops enforcing the border for the UN, I suspect the Sudanese military would be comparatively helpless. And, theoretically, Sudan is pledged to respect to respect the result of the referendum as part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
The new state would presumably have the support of “the free world” and likely China, since Southern Sudan produces something like 85% of Sudan’s oil, which China has significant investments and interest in. (Revenues are divided 50:50 under the CPR.) Theoretically, as well, oil revenue could be used to better the often incredibly grim humanitarian situation in the south. Also, the promise of a permanent settlement of the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983–2005) might attract of aid and investment in Southern Sudan that is kept away by the uncertainty that’s hung over it.
If there’s a part of the world that could safely disaggregate countries and redraw borders, it‘s Africa. That said, Africans have been remarkably resistant to doing so—which is interesting. Let’s hope this goes well. Confucius has long thought that secession is the best solution for both parties, but he doesn’t know whether the parties themselves see it that way…
Gormogonicon 2013 in Juba?
*For those who came in late: Confucius is the name of the Gormogons’ Œcumenical Volgi.
Don’t ask impertinent questions like that jackass Adept Lu.