What to Make of Recent Tech News
There are a few hot stories in the tech industry that I’d like to touch on today:
First, Apple’s monster quarter. Apple did an amazing job – even during a period where consumers were more cautious in spending, they were able to blow away their market estimates and sold 7.33 Million iPads. The iPhone continues to do well (and will likely be bolstered by the Verizon deal – regardless of the lack of 4G to start) leaving the iPod line as their weaker link. Weaker in that the latest generation of iPods (iPod Touch) only sold 19.4 Million units last quarter (down from 21 Million in the same quarter last year). Clearly, they’ve nailed the market in these areas and others are playing catch up. Regardless of what Jobs said in his conference call, the Android market share is growing and actually surpassed the iPhone this quarter (iPhone stayed rather flat at 21% and Android jumped to 28%). I expect this will shift a bit with the Verizon iPhone deal but strategically, I think the Android is better positioned. Why? Let me use Steve Jobs’ own words from his conference call:
I think the most forward-looking CIOs are coming to the realization that the productivity of the person, the creativity of the employees is materially more important than everyone using the same thing. [excerpt moved below for focus] And so I think the list of ideas and places that people can go there were unimaginable just to a few months ago. And so I see an enormous potential there. The numbers are already incredible.
Absolutely – if we empower people it is unknown and very powerful where they can creatively take ideas and concepts. This is part of my usual rant that we need to open, encourage, fund, etc. more R&D type efforts which will pay off in the economy in a number of years. I cut out an excerpt above that Jobs dropped in the middle of the previous quote. This is why I think the Android is better positioned and to a certain degree my main issue with Apple (and as the other Gormogons can attest – has always been my axe to grind on Apple):
And the ability to write apps in a simple and straightforward manner for the iPhone or the iPad through the SDK is an incredible thing. And you can wind up, literally, running your whole business off of an iPad or an iPhone.
Let me translate that: “The ability to write apps within the confines of Apple’s Terms & Conditions in a simple and straightforward manner by only using Apple products on Apple hardware and using an Apple development environment for the Apple iPhone or the Apple iPad….” Remember, the sentence before ended with his belief that people’s ability to be creative is MORE IMPORTANT than everyone using the SAME THING. Stew on that for a minute. Here’s my issue: while I can understand that Apple wants to ensure some level of quality in the end customer experience on the iPhone, iPad, etc. they take an extreme stance and control the whole creative development process from start to end my requiring Apple products.* My personal belief is that Apple should be more open in the development process for Apps on their products and then step back and watch how creative people can be.
Second, Steve Jobs’ health. I beleive that we are experiencing a generational dearth of strong leaders – largely in the tail end of the Baby Boomer population. I think we can see this in politics, business, government and industry. Yes, there are exceptions. Steve Jobs is a leader who has largely driven Apple’s success. The trouble is whether Apple is so tied to Jobs that those who can or will step in for Jobs will damage its future. Given that they are sitting on $60 Billion in cash and are well positioned in many of their markets, there is some cushion. I’ll use a sports analogy – when a coach retires or quits after building a great team, it is not a given that the new coach will experience the same level of success with the same talent pool. Time will tell, but if Apple didn’t have a Jobs-gets-hit-by-a-bus plan, then they are facing a tough road ahead. Expectations have been set and sometimes the market isn’t so forgiving.
Third, the Comcast-NBC deal. NBC has been floundering as of late. Some of their shows are doing fine, but largely they haven’t been the powerhouse that they’ve been in the past. I don’t have a big issue with the acquisition, but consumers and the market will have to watch and see how Comcast treats NBC content versus other media providers (CBS, Disney, etc.) as well as how it approaches other cable/telco providers (i.e. Verizon, Cox, etc.) with regards to deal for NBC content. The government has stipulated that they must give up voting rights in Hulu. What one should take away from this is the market trend. There is a battle out there for the popular entertainment access to the masses. Look at the evolution of entertainment devices – Blu-Ray DVD players are now internet capable (including WiFi) and provide access to streaming internet content (i.e. NetFlix hosted movies, Pandora, Hulu, YouTube, etc.). The battle is for the merging of the internet and “television” (the medium and delivery mechanics). People still don’t (largely) want to sit in front of a traditional computer to watch a movie or TV show but they’ll drop hours in front of a 46″ high definition flat panel with Dolby 7.1 surround sound. So everyone that has a play in the entertainment industry is pushing towards that goal: the telcos (Verizon, AT&T, etc.), the cable providers (Comcast, Cox, etc.), and even internet businesses (NetFlix, Hulu, etc.). However, here’s the nugget: the ones to watch next are the social networking – specifically Facebook and the location-targeting advertisement folks (GroupOn, Living Social). Facebook will bet on consumers wanting to “connect” with friends via their TV. Personally, I’m not buying it – but then again, I’m not dropping an average of 4,050 text messages on my cell phone per month like current 13-17 year olds do (by the way, that’s about 135 messages per day or 5 messages per hour). I think the appeal of Facebook is the “removed” social connection. I can passively listen to what my friends are doing, saying, etc. or just drop short status messages or selectively post certain images. I’m not convinced that more interaction from within the confines of my family room via my “enhanced” television/media center is the wave of the future.
* Yes, I know that there are some limited, alternative ways to develop Apps for Apple products. And yes, I’m aware of Jailbreaking Apple products to break out from these confines – which only bolsters my point that the power of creativity is immense.
GorT is an eight-foot-tall robot from the 51ˢᵗ Century who routinely time-travels to steal expensive technology from the future and return it to the past for retroinvention. The profits from this pay all the Gormogons’ bills, including subsidizing this website. Some of the products he has introduced from the future include oven mitts, the Guinness widget, Oxy-Clean, and Dr. Pepper. Due to his immense cybernetic brain, GorT is able to produce a post in 0.023 seconds and research it in even less time. Only ’Puter spends less time on research. GorT speaks entirely in zeros and ones, but occasionally throws in a ڭ to annoy the Volgi. He is a massive proponent of science, technology, and energy development, and enjoys nothing more than taking the Czar’s more interesting scientific theories, going into the past, publishing them as his own, and then returning to take credit for them. He is the only Gormogon who is capable of doing math. Possessed of incredible strength, he understands the awesome responsibility that follows and only uses it to hurt people.