Operative MC2 writes in regarding Dr. J.’s missive on the Nebraska senate race:

Dr J, 

Hopefully I can put your mind at ease regarding the Nebraska Senate race, having lived here and watched it fairly closely this spring. 

It was something of a relief to me that Deb Fischer won. I am confident there are a *lot* fewer skeletons in her closet than in Jon Bruning’s (the state AG and leading R candidate up until a few days before the election). Bruning’s record as AG and his business associations would be prime fodder for out-of-state attack money. Don Stenberg never really had a chance – he’s 0 for 3 now running for Senate. Once people were comfortable with the idea of not voting for Bruning, they went to Fischer.  

The Sarah Palin endorsement had practically zero effect. However, Jeff Fortenberry (an R congressman) also endorsed her a few days prior and I think that may have helped people say “well, I’m not happy with Bruning, and if Jeff is OK with her, I am too”. 

Bob Kerrey has been polling about 35-ish percent since he got in, and unless Deb Fischer is found roasting live puppies for breakfast, it’ll remain there. If there was a possibility this year for a slightly-left-of-center Democrat to win, Ben Nelson would be doing it. Ben’s not retiring because he wanted to come home to Nebraska, he’s retiring because he didn’t want to campaign all year, blow some of his own money, and get whooped by 60/40 or more. I think Nebraskans realize that despite Nelson’s occasionally voting with the Republicans, his presence adds one to the count that keeps Harry Reid as majority leader and in control of what the Senate does. Why not have a Republican and a shot at actually running the Senate instead? 

The out-of-state money will be wasted unless they can find something on Deb Fischer. I think the most effective attacks against her would probably be from the right – I don’t think she did enough to try to keep state spending and taxes down. Someone trying to say she’s not centrist enough will have a hard time making the point effectively in this state. Yes, she’s somewhere to the right of Ben Nelson and Bob Kerrey. So? That’s kinda what the electorate is after now. Bob is trying to portray himself as a centrist and someone who will work with Republicans, but Ben wasn’t far from that and he got the message to get out of the race. 

Bob won’t break 40% unless Deb craters (and I don’t mean the typical gaffes all candidates have – I mean something criminal, and the odds of that are comfortably close to zero). I hope the outside groups bring in a lot of money, that should bump up tax receipts and keep the unicameral from considering tax hikes. Plus it’s money that won’t be spent someplace else that might be effective. 

Best, MC2

Dear MC2,

Thank you for writing in. Dr. J. loves our readers because they bring first hand Nowledge about a legion of subjects, including the Nebraska senate race.

MC2 brings a ground perspective that is quite reassuring, and Dr. J. agrees that Mrs. Fischer is a great choice and Nebraskans don’t want ‘more of the same.’ If they did, Mr. Nelson would be running for reelection.

Dr. J. is probably being a bit of a Cassandra, but never misundestimate the ability of the Democrats to make up charges.

Just look at J.P. Morgan. They’re under investigation for making a dumb investment move. Sarah Palin was investigated for and brought up on so many bogus ethics charges as a Governor that she resigned under the weight of legal challenges she couldn’t financially afford to defend given the rules about ‘defense funds’ for Alaska state government officials. The proof there is that Alaska revised their rules to prevent future governors from suffering the same fate.

In other words, you are spot on, MC2, but R’s never have as easy a path as the D’s. This seat is too important for the D’s to forfeit without a fight.

It will be a fun summer and fall, and Dr. J. looks forward to who can demolish more corn-dogs and fried twinkles. Mrs. Fischer or Mr. Kerrey.

Warmest Regards,

Dr. J.

Dr. J.