There has been some fair criticism recently that Americans are not taking the North Korean situation seriously. Understandably, Americans kind of tune out the raving idiocy that pops out of that country on borrowed Japanese social media. Additionally, many South Koreans know that when they elect a new president, heated threats come out of the North just to see what position the new president will take, and so forth.

The North Koreans are doing more than parades and displays these days. And for the first time in decades, the North Korean watchers are getting nervous. Here is a rundown of where we’re at.

So why are experts on North Korea so nervous about the latest range of threats? Indeed, the Czar who might know more about North Korea than many so-called Asian experts, is very curious about recent events there. Do the North Koreans really want a war?

Some things to remember:

• North Korea has been at war since 1950. In fact, while most people (even many South Koreans) assume that the war was pretty well over in 1954, North Korea has always remain firmly convinced the war is still on. Indeed, some internal propaganda suggests that the North is trying to convince its imprisoned citizens that the war has been active and raging for over 60 years, and that right now North Korean tanks are rolling through the streets of Seoul and Seattle. The North has never officially acknowledged even a cease fire.
• North Korean rockets cannot reach the United States, and shipping out of the North is carefully monitored by the US Navy, just in case they were to try to sneak an atomic weapon into Honolulu via shipping container. In fact, North Korean cargo ships are stopped and boarded by naval craft more often than you know about. In short, North Korea poses very little threat to America.
• However, an attack on South Korea would almost certainly interrupt the economy there, which would in turn have a direct effect on the economies of America, Japan, and China. The North is well aware that they could do more damage against the world economically than militarily; however, they would need to use their military against the South to create the necessary economic conditions.
• The North is not a suicidal dictatorship like, say, Iran. The North has no grand plans to bring about the end of days; in fact, it is very much committed to staying alive. And the North harbors no illusions that, were it to really attack the South, its survival would last longer than 15 minutes from an American response.
• China has little real influence over North Korea, despite many Americans’ belief. Indeed, China knows that the fall of North Korea and its subsequent unification with the South is inevitable. China’s grand plan here is, in our opinion, to capitalize off the rebuilding of the North. Trillions of dollars can be made by rebuilding North Korea and China wants all of it. And, if they manage that transition correctly, a unified Korea might very much be an economic powerhouse beholden to Chinese interests, rather than American ones.
• As a result, China very much wants to see North Korea collapse—but not by American hands. Americans, you recall, tend to be very generous with the countries they invade. If America attacks North Korea, the unified Korea will certainly be in America’s debt.
• The North Koreans know that no matter what happens, this is a lose-lose for them. No matter what happens, this winds up bad for them.

So what is going on? The problem is that the new leader, Kim Jông-Un, is running out of time to convince the military that he has their interests at heart. So by building up the image of the North Korean military as a serious threat to the world, he buys credibility.

The upshot is that he might, in his inexperience, push his rhetoric too far and trigger an event that results in real conflict. Basically, he has painted his country into a corner. To his credit, President Obama appears to be taking the Korean situation quite seriously—more so than the amelioration and supplication of Bill Clinton. As Kim ramps up displays of the North Korean military, the United States responds in kind with increased naval patrols and B-52 fly-bys. “You wanna dance?” seems to be our response.

This is an interesting response from the normally feckless Obama administration. The United States is showing that while it may not consider North Korea a serious opponent, the North had better toe the line.

Yes, we will probably prevent any real hostility. However, the North Koreans are destined to fall and when they do, the beginning of those days might look quite a bit like today.

The Czar of Muscovy

Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.