Claims and Guesses
The Czar elects to look at some common memes in the press, and reveals his hunch about each. These aren’t predictions—just gut feelings.
Claim: The Republicans are going to pay dearly for the shutdown.
Hunch: The public has already moved on from the shutdown, and while blame was thrown around in all directions, most voters seem to think the shutdown had no real effect on them. With the attention on the utter disaster of Healthcare.gov, the Republicans will suffer no ill consequences from the shutdown whatsoever…especially by 2014. But don’t get too excited—the GOP will find something else to screw up just before the election.
Claim: Senator Ted Cruz will emerge stronger than ever.
Hunch: Although he is being demonized on the terrified Left, many on the Right are seeing all sorts of fantasy in Ted Cruz. Senator Cruz is a smart guy and a fiesty, devoted conservative. But the near-religious frenzy he is invoking in libertarian-leaning conservatives is a strong indicator that he was become a niche player. Yes, you read that right: about 70% of what his supporters think of him is not true, and Cruz probably would be annoyed by it in person. Folks on both sides are seeing all sorts of things in Ted Cruz that don’t exist. Having written that, the Czar thinks he will be forgiven for railroading the GOP into the shutdown. But that forgiveness will not translate to a nomination; in fact, Ted Cruz will probably drop out of the race faster than Gov. Rick Perry did.
Claim: Healthcare.gov will be fixed by on time.
Hunch: Jeff Zients, the whatever-he-is in charge of the Healthcare.gov restoration project, has committed that the website will be operational well in advance of the deadlines. In fact, it won’t, and it will not be even close. And the White House will make another grandiose announcement about it being ready, only to find within hours that the disasters continue. Simply put, the website is relying on many levels of two-decade-old incompatible technologies that cannot be fixed with a few lines of JavaScript. The website, based on what it is trying to do, will never operate as such. In fact, it is likely the White House will have a Republican president before it actually has a functioning Healthcare.gov.
Claim: The Republicans will not win the White House in 2016.
Hunch: That’s probably true, as things stand now. Hillary Clinton is too formidable and will be using many tactics learned from the Obama campaign. Meanwhile, the GOP will continue to be drawn into trivial issues that distract from its key (and historically unbeatable) economic messages. Given that Barack Obama has handed the GOP everything is needs to defeat Hillary Clinton—after all, he did it—and that the Democrats are running out of excuses, the GOP will reliably invent a situation that derails their chances. Yes: the GOP is learning valuable lessons, but evidently not fast enough. 2020? Probably a GOP White house. 2016? Hmmmm.
Claim: Incumbent Senate Democrats from Red States are promoting a delay in Obamacare, sensing that any further push forward will cost them their jobs.
Hunch: They are right that supporting Obamacare will cost them their jobs. They are wrong if they think this will fool any of the voters. While the Czar says it is too soon to tell whether the Senate will flip Republican in 2014—the numbers suggest it will—he does suspect that few voters will really be fooled by this stunt. Further, if a Democratic Senator keeps his or her job in a red state, it won’t be because of the push for delay but some other reason entirely.
Божію Поспѣшествующею Милостію Мы, Дима Грозный Императоръ и Самодержецъ Всероссiйскiй, цѣсарь Московскiй. The Czar was born in the steppes of Russia in 1267, and was cheated out of total control of all Russia upon the death of Boris Mikhailovich, who replaced Alexander Yaroslav Nevsky in 1263. However, in 1283, our Czar was passed over due to a clerical error and the rule of all Russia went to his second cousin Daniil (Даниил Александрович), whom Czar still resents. As a half-hearted apology, the Czar was awarded control over Muscovy, inconveniently located 5,000 miles away just outside Chicago. He now spends his time seething about this and writing about other stuff that bothers him.